Written for a Geology of Volcanoes class in January 2023.
A collection of audio, emails, and reports regarding the catastrophic eruption of Mount Flarona in 1435
Trigger warnings for censored swearing, lots of death, natural disasters
Hey James!
Congratulations on being named project manager for the Greater Aolyan Volcanic Inquiry! I'm sure you will lead us on to great scientific discoveries and minimal disasters. Can't do worse than Colin, am I right?
Anyway, I'm writing to you today to give to you my research on the 1435 eruption of Mount Flarona. I've compiled reports, audio transcripts, even a couple of diaries and personal logs. The picture they draw is (in my opinion) quite damning. I'm sending this to you because I believe we need to be paying more attention to ol' Flarona. Millions of people are within the eruption radius of that mountain, and if the 1435 eruption repeats itself (however unlikely that exact set of circumstances is), they will all die. But resource allocation is your job, of course, so I'm just making sure you have all the information you need.
Best of luck!
Miyla
January 1525
Exerpt from Travelers Guide to Aolyao by Michael Newman (1514) on Mount Flarona
Mount Flarona is located on the eastern coast of Aolyao. It is a runty stump of a mountain, measuring only about 800 meters in height, a distance that was more than tripled before the 1435 eruption. It is fed by the subduction zone that terrorizes the residents of the east. If one were to slice it down the middle, one could see the layers of pyroclastic flows and lahars that build up the slopes of this stratovolcano.
At the time of the 1435 eruption, close to 50,000 people lived along the slopes of the mountain. Nowadays, that number has increased one hundred fold, hovering around 5 million and regularly breaking 6 million during the tourist season. Luckily, the mountain has shown no signs of repeating its 1435 show.
Harosian Happenings article detailing a minor earthquake, February 1435
The highschool football game was interrupted yesterday by an earthquake shaking the field. The away team was preparing a punt when the stands started rattling and the endposts began to quiver. Well trained by years of drills, both teams paused their play and hit the ground to minimize injuries. The quake, a magnitude 4.9, was not strong and caused minimal damage in an area prepared for them--thank our commissioners for our zoning laws! After about thirty seconds of shaking, the quake ended and the teams were able to continue the down. Unfortunately, the away team won 15-14.
Aolyan Volcanic Taskforce internal messaging concerning the earthquake and next steps
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From:Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: earthquake
Hey Will, what was that earthquake? Did you get any data on it?
To: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
From: William Hegel, Haros area manager
Subject: re: earthquake
Jeff,
Yes, we got data on it. It was related to the subduction zone movement, not Flarona (thank the gods). That being said, though, there has been a slight uptick in seismic activity at Flna since, so I want to increase monitoring. We know he's a smelly mountain; can we get some more gas sensors? Minor landslide took one of ours out, and the other is reaching the end of its life expectancy.
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: re: re: earthquake
No problem. You're due for an upgrade anyway. I'll have three sensors shipped out to you in the next week. Let me know if you pick up anything interesting.
Personal log of Alexander Carrowcross concerning a summit expedition of Mount Flarona
24 March-- gas monitoring picking up increase in H2O. No good. Jeff requested eyes on the summit-- seems safe enough to go right now. If it blows while I'm up there make sure my mother in Jessixlan is told.
24 March-- mountain didn't blow. Was cold. No visible steam or other disturbances. Glacier seems to be stable. Should we be monitoring that? Water in an eruption is no good. Must bring it up with Jeff.
25 March-- Jeff says that a glacier will mess with an eruption, but not something we need to worry about right now. Not sure I believe him. With minimal eruption signs it's probably fine for the moment. Will go check on it from time to time anyway.
Audio Transcript: Conversation between Wiliam Hegel and Jamie Turner, March 1435
HEGEL: Jamie! Did you get the EDMs calibrated?
TURNER: Nosir, I've been trying though. Something is misaligned and the data is not agreeing with the GPS stuff.
HEGEL: What seems to be the problem?
TURNER: I dunno. I've checked both the hardware and the software. Everything is connected properly, but the numbers aren't consistent.
HEGEL: Could the issue be the GPS?
TURNER: No, we've never had a problem before. It has to be in the EDM stuff.
HEGEL: [long sigh] okay. I'll write to Jeff and ask for a new system. We can see if that helps.
Audio Transcript: Conversation between William Hegel and Jamie Turner, April 1435
TURNER: [loud crash] damn it, damn it, DAMN IT!
HEGEL: Problem, Jamie?
TURNER: I've recalibrated the sensors! I've recalibrated the lasers! I've recalibrated the software! I've replaced every possible part! And the EDM and GPS data is still not picking anything up!
HEGEL: Is this about Flarona?
TURNER: Yes! Alex has been going up it every day, and he claims that it's changing shape, but the systems aren't picking up anything! As far as they're concerned, there's barely even a mountain to study!
HEGEL: You're trusting Carrowcross? He's paranoid to an extreme. "Changing shape" could mean there's a new tree growing.
TURNER: I guess you're right. I just don't like that I can't get these things to work! If something happens, we won't know.
HEGEL: We've got seismometers and gas sensors on it. We have back up options.
TURNER: [long pause] I guess you're right.
HEGEL: Look, Jamie. You've been taking a lot of overtime on this. Why don't you take the weekend off, get some sleep? You look like you could use it.
TURNER: Yeah. Thanks, boss.
From the diary of Eleanor Neail (age 12), April 1435
Mother and I went to the annual disaster awareness town council today. There were meteorologists discussing the possible weather threats to our area, making sure that everyone knew how to handle ice and snow. I always find it a bit odd that this meeting happens after winter. Father says it's because part of the point is discussing the damage the winter has already done. I suppose that makes sense. After the meteorologists finished their presentations, the geologists got up to talk about earthquakes and Mount Flarona. He hasn't erupted in decades, so I don't see what the fuss is. It must be sleeping, not a problem. But they said they were "detecting signs of unrest." There was too much water in the air, they said. Mr. Matson pointed out that it's the spring thaw, and they didn't respond to that. Flarona is a good mountain. He won't hurt us.
Audio Transcript:Conversation between William Hegel and Jamie Turner, May 1435
TURNER: My gods Will, I think I might be losing my mind.
HEGEL: What's wrong?
TURNER: These accursed machines won't work!
HEGEL: Still not measuring any deformations?
TURNER: No! I've done everything I can think of to fix these gods damned machines, and not a single thing is making the numbers work!
HEGEL: Has it...occurred to you that perhaps the mountain is not deforming?
TURNER: Look out the window, William! Look at the curve in the slope! It didn't look like that six months ago!
HEGEL: I think Alex is getting to you. Take a break. Come on, let's go get dinner, my treat.
Exerpt from the Haros area climate summit, May 1435
While spending habits and intake of Harosian citizens suggest a green habit across the board, the science disagrees. Long term observations of the Mount Flarona glacier indicate that it is melting faster than expected based on the climate data of the area. Meltwater levels are consistently measuring about 5% higher than they should be. This indicates a rampant dishonesty inherent in the Harosian people, specifically those around Mount Flarona. Steps need to be taken to curb these habits, both the lying and the lack of environmental integrity.
Aolyan Volcanic Taskforce internal messaging concerning the climate summit results, May-June 1435
To: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
From: William Hegel, Haros area manager
Subject: Satellite time
Jeff,
I'm sure you've seen the climate summit conclusions by this point, especially concerning Flarona's glacier. I've had my team look into the findings, and the glacier is melting. However, based on the deformations in the glacier, we suspect that the cause is not greenhouse gasses in the area, but instead the mountain itself. To that end, I'd like to reserve some time with the weather satellites to collect some thermal data of the mountain.
Thanks,
Will
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: re: Satellite time
Hey Will! I'm sorry, but no can do. The eruption over in Canelpon is a priority right now, and I'll need more of an argument than a bruised ego to pull the satellite over your way for any meaningful length of time. You're still slotted for the regular update time in December; you can look at it then.
To: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
From: William Hegel, Haros area manager
Subject: re: re: Satellite time
Please reconsider. We've been detecting a concerning increase in H2O emissions at the summit, and my team is collecting data on a possible deformation in the mountain.
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: re: re: re: Satellite time
No. This decision is final. I'm sorry, but glacial melt releases H2O and the data that's been reported up to this point about a possible deformation is inconclusive at best and indicative of scientific malpractice at worst. You'll have your chance in December.
Audio Transcript: Conversation between William Hegel and Jamie Turner, July 1435
HEGEL: Jamie, this is getting ridiculous. What are you doing?
TURNER: Alex and I have been taking photos of the mountain every day since early June. I'm overlaying them to see if the peak is really rising.
HEGEL: None of the GPS data suggests that the mountain is changing shape in any way--
TURNER: I'm certain there's something wrong with the satellite, Will! There's no other explanation!
HEGEL: There is no evidence to suggest that the satellite is malfunctioning. I've allowed you to recalibrate all of our sensors. I've allowed you to rewrite the software that analyzes the data. I've been patient with the amount of time you've dedicated to this project. I've even asked Jeff if he can confirm the working status of the satellite itself! [NB: I found no evidence of this conversation ever taking place] I need you to accept this and go back to your work on the seismic data. I need to know how much the earthquakes have increased in the past few months.
TURNER: Look at the photos! It is CLEAR to see--
HEGEL: NO, Jamie. Enough. If we want to convince HQ that there is a danger with this mountain, we need to use actual evidence, not a conspiracy theory developed by a paranoid fool and a man who's getting too little sleep. Go look at the seismic data. Now.
TURNER: Yes, sir.
Audio Transcript: Conversation between William Hegel and Jamie Turner, August 1435
HEGEL: You're done.
TURNER: What, you're firing me?
HEGEL: No, I'm banning you from taking on any more overtime.
TURNER: But my projects--
HEGEL: I'm formally closing the deformation research, so you should have plenty of time to finish your assignments.
TURNER: Why?!
HEGEL: You mean apart from the fact that it's turning you into a delusional madman? The spending reports were just released to the public and they're demanding budget cuts. I'm canceling the deformation research before the arguments get too heated before they start making bigger demands.
TURNER: You mean you're giving us up for your baby seismometers and gas sensors.
HEGEL: Look, Jamie. If I had the money to let you continue troubleshooting forever, I would. But I don't, so I'm putting my foot down.
TURNER: Look at the mountain, Will! Look at the curve! An eruption is bearing down on us--
HEGEL: For what it's worth, Jamie, I think you're right.
TURNER: What?
HEGEL: But something isn't working, and we don't have the time or resources for it right now. We need to focus on the things that are producing reliable data so that we can start making predictions.
TURNER: I guess. I'm not happy about it, though.
HEGEL: Neither am I.
Weather Bulletin, November 1435
WINTER WEATHER WATCH: A cold front will be moving through the Mount Flarona region in the next few days, bringing with it snow. Expected accumulation is less than 1 inch, but wind may cause blowing snow and ice. Expect poor visibility. Travel not advised.
Aolyan Volcanic Taskforce internal messaging concerning the upcoming storm, November 1435
To: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
From: William Hegel, Haros area manager
Subject: Storm Approaching
Jeff,
We've got a storm approaching that is likely to cause blizzard conditions on Flarona, so I am once again requesting thermal imaging of the mountain. We've been detecting statistically significant CO2 emissions and trace amounts of SO2, but the sensors will likely cease functioning for the duration of the storm. With the visible deformation of the summit of the mountain it seems in our best interests to keep eyes on the situation.
Thanks,
Will
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: re: Storm Approaching
I thought I made it clear in our last discussion of the satellite that you will get your time in December. I understand that the situation is not ideal, but the odds that the mountain will blow during the 72 hour window of the storm is so low as to be negligible.
To: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
From: William Hegel, Haros area manager
Subject: re: re: Storm Approaching
All of our current monitoring methods depend on mountain based systems, all of which are liable to go offline when a blizzard hits. I'm no meteorologist, but looking at the radar I don't believe for a minute that this storm is going to be a little one.
To: William Hegel, Haros area manager
From: Geoffrey Eriksen, Regional manager
Subject: re: re: re: Storm Approaching
You are not a meteorologist. The storm will be small. Your systems will be fine. If they're not, I'll buy you a beer the next time you are in town.
Look, even if I wanted to give you satellite time, the red tape and the reprogramming of the flight patterns and the access codes would all add up to you not getting access until well after the storm has passed. I can't do anything for you.
Weather Bulletin, November 1435
BLIZZARD WARNING: Radar indicates that the cold front has picked up moisture from a passing tropical system, resulting in an increase in strength of the approaching storm. Snow totals are now predicted to exceed 2 feet, accompanied by wind speeds of up to 40 miles per hour. Travel is not advised.
Audio Transcript: Black Box recording of AVT-Flarona headquarters, November 1435.Features William Hegel, Alexander Carrowcross, and Jamie Turner
CARROWCROSS: The wind's picking up. I think the storm is here.
HEGEL: Let's hope it's a kind one.
[period of silence]
TURNER: Seismometers are picking up increased activity. Some sensors aren't responding, so I don't think I can calculate depth.
CARROWCROSS: Let me look. [pause] That's not good.
HEGEL: What?
CARROWCROSS: Earthquake activity increased by 200%. Something's happening.
[distant muffled explosion]
TURNER: ****! Seismometers off the charts! Massive earthquake activity detected! No, no, STOP! I've lost connection to the upper summit sensor!
CARROWCROSS: Weather radar indicating unexpected cloud in the Flarona region, growing quickly! This is it!
HEGEL: **** **** ****! Sound the alarm! We need to evacuate this place now!
TURNER: HOW? There's a blizzard out there; people can't leave their homes!
CARROWCROSS: Look out the window.
[brief silence]
TURNER: It's beautiful.
CARROWCROSS: It really is.
[unattributed sigh]
TURNER: Radar is picking up lightning in the area. Unlikely that it's from the blizzard. We must have a pretty sizable and energetic ash cloud already.
HEGEL: There was a glacier at the summit, and it's actively snowing into the eruption. This is a water-powered show.
CARROWCROSS: I wonder which will win, the eruption or the blizzard? Will the lava melt all the snow?
TURNER: Sounds like a recipe for lahars to me.
[brief silence]
TURNER: Well boss, I think Jeff owes you a beer, but I don't think you're going to be able to collect.
HEGEL: No. I don't think I will.
CARROWCROSS: Window. WINDOW!
TURNER: HOLY ****!
[quiet roaring, growing louder]
[indistinct roaring and screaming]
[silence]